Who will the Kentucky and Oregon Democratic primaries — Clinton or Obama? Look no further than the percentage of African-American population and voters. You don’t need polls, pundits and forecasters.
Elsewhere, I have hypothesized (with credible empirics from the current election cycle) that Obama dominates those primaries and caucuses in states where the percentage of African-American voters is very small (less than 5 percent as in Iowa or Wisconsin) or relatively large (more than 20-25 percent as in Georgia and South Carolina.) Where the African-American voters are present in the middling range — 5 percent to about 15-20 percent — Clinton prevails more often than not.
The empirics of 2008 Democratic party presidential contests are thus. In the contests thus far, Obama has won 12 of the 15 contests in which the African-American population has been less than 5 percent, and 10 of the 11 contests in which the African-American population has been greater than 15 percent. In those 18 states where the African-American population ranges from 4%-16%, Obama has won 8, while Clinton has won 11.
What are the distributions of African-American populations in Kentucky and Oregon? 7.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. So what should be our forecast? Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon.
Note that the hypothesis and model are postulated only for the Democratic party presidential contests between Obama and Clinton, and not for the general elections.
Posted on May 20th
Tags: Clinton, Kentucky, Obama, Oregon, U.S. elctions
