The Role of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the India-US Nuclear agreement

Daniel Kushner of loftylantern.com raises an interesting question regarding the India-US India Nucler agreement (123 agreement). Daniel asks –

“….considering that the BJP had supported the agreement before losing power, do you think it possible or likely that some of their members will back the deal in the Lok Sabha against the wishes of their party’s leaders?”

Here is what I think on this important question –

BJP will not support the current version of India-US Nuclear agreement in the Indian parliament (Lok Sabha) though the party has always advocated robust relations with the United States, and had on prior occasions indicated some level of support for a India-US Nuclear agreement.

Can some parliament members of the BJP any way vote for the agreement in the Parliament? The answer is, ‘No.’ Unlike the American legislative bodies, the political parties in Indian legislative bodies (similar to the British parliament) have the authority to issue a ‘whip’ (i.e. a directive) to the party parliamentarians to vote in a certain manner on a given bill. If a parliament member defies the ‘whip’ then he is subject potential expulsion from the party.

Will some parliament members of the BJP defy the whip? Very unlikely because the immediate political benefit (I am not referring to the strategic benefit for the country) from the agreement is very limited, if any at all — on the other hand, there may be more downside.

Now to the substance of the issue — why does BJP oppose the agreement? There are three reasons for this. One, BJP wants to maintain India’s ability to conduct future nuclear tests (the party calls it Pokhran III exemption — Pokhran was the site of the earlier nuclear test) so that India can learn about the technology from real experiments, if necessary. This is most unlikely to ever happen — the United States and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group are already granting an extra-ordinary exemption to India given that India has not signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, more than this will not happen.

Two, BJP is looking at some immediate potential political gains — any political party worth its name anywhere in the world would do this. The Nuclear agreement may be popular with the elite of India but it is unlikely to have any traction with the large masses of India. There is, however, a substantial potential downside to the agreement. Most unfortunately and incorrectly, the agreement is seen among some electorate as hegemonic influence of the United States. No where is this sentiment most evident than among the Muslims in India — Indian Muslims, too, are suspicious of the United States in the post 9/11 world . Muslims are swing voters in many constituencies in India, and BJP has traditionally had difficulty in attracting their vote because the party is perceived to be sometimes against the interest of the Muslims. So why not use this opportunity to soften the party’s image or at least portray the Congress party as inimical to the interests of the Muslims.

Three, BJP is simply stating that India should be declared and accepted as a nuclear power. If that is done, then all this will be a non-issue. BJP feels has earned this right because of its capabilities, knowledge and responsible behavior. This is also a valid argument but not likely to find much traction among the global political leaders.

Tags: 123 agreement, 9/11, Bhartiya Janata Party, Congress party, India-US Nuclear agreement, Indian muslims, Indian Parliament, Lok Sabha, Nuclear Suppliers' Group