As India debates the merits of the 123 agreement (India-US Nuclear agreement), here is where we stand –
(1) Prime Minister ManMohan Singh and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi appear to be most sincere in the belief that the 123 agreement (India-US Nuclear agreement) is strategically beneficial to India. Clearly, they see no danger of interruption to the nuclear supplies in the future or any compromise of the country’s nuclear capabilities or sovereignty.
However, they are not ready to share the text of the agreement between the Government of India and the International Atomic Energy Agency with regard to specific safeguards. They cite classified nature the document, and the potential compromise with the country’s security.
(2) There appear to be unanswered questions regarding the safeguards agreement with IAEA. The communist parties and the opposition leaders appear to be equally sincere and patriotic in their questioning.
The draft text was published in The Times of India on July 10th, and I am uploading it here at the bottom of this posting.
Anil Kakodkar, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (India), is confident that the agreement with the IAEA is all that India wants and needs. On the other hand, P.K. Iyengar dismisses this saying this agreement is no different from the routing “circular-66.”
Clearly, both the Indian policy makers and scientists appear to be sincerely torn about the merits of the 123 agreement. It is almost certain the Congress party and its political allies will be able to win the vote of confidence in the Indian parliament — Lok Sabha – although the vote will not in any manner be an overwhelming approval of the government and its approach to the Nuclear agreement (and that would be the most beneficial situation for the country on a matter of such importance and long-term consequences for the country.)
(3) In the meantime, inflation in India is galloping at 12 percent annual rate — the highest it has been since about 1996. The annual growth rate is slowing down to about 7 percent — the lowest in the last six years or so. All the economic data — high fuel and food prices, monstrous inflation, and lower growth rate — point to serious economic challenges.
(4) India’s political dynamic is also somewhat discomforting. Yesterday’s friends — Congress and the Communist parties — have fallen out sharply. Mamata Banerjee will support the government because she does not care for the communists. Jharkand Mukti Morcha — an ally of the government and the Congress party — says that it may not support the government because its leader,Shibu Soren, has not been treated with respect. Mulayam Singh and his Samajwad Party, strong critics of the government till yesterday, are new-found allies of the government. Mrs. Mayawati and her Bahujan Samajwad Party, friends and political allies of the government till a month back, are now on the opposite sides of the divide. The Central Bureau of Invesitgation (CBI) has informed the Supreme Court on July 10th that the government has sufficient evidence to prosecute her in the ‘disproportionate assets” case — that comes after the political marriage between Mulayam Singh, an inveterate political opponent of Mayawati, and the Congress party. And so on goes the merry-go-around of political relationships, new and old.
(5) In all this confusing situation, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister ManMohan Singh, Communist parties and their political leadership including Mr. Prakash Karat, and Bharatiya Janata Party and its political leadership (including Mr. L.K. Advani) deserve recognition for their thoughtful positions and conduct on the 123 agreement and the related political and policy debate.
Akali Dal deserves all our congratulations if the media reports that the party will vote against the Government is correct. It is true that Akali Dal has been a vocal opponent of the government and its policies, so the current decision to oppose the government is not news. But there was enormous political pressure on Akali Dal either to abstain in the voting (on the no-confidence measure) or support the government based on the fact for the first time a Sikh (Manmohan Singh) is the Prime Minister and the party of the interests Sikhs (Akali Dal) has a responsibility not to pull the rug under from Manmohan Singh. Akali Dal may a big political price for its decision, and that’s why it deserves our congratulations. Remember what Shiv Sena did last year. Though Shiv Sena opposes the Congress party and the government, the party decided to support Congress party’s nominee (Mrs. Pratibha Patil) for India’s Presidency. The reason was simple: Shiv Sena — a party of th interests of Maharashtrians — cannnot oppose the first Maharashtrian presidential candidate.
As promised, here is the draft text of India’s agreement with IAEA as published in The Times of India –
Tags: 123 agreement, India, India-US Nuclear agreement, International Atomic Energy Agency, L.K. Advani, Lok Sabha, Manmohan Singh, Times of India, Vote of Confidence
