There is a perception that Barack Obama has problem with the white voters. Is that right? Yes and No. Yes, in comparison with John McCain because John McCain gets about 7-10 points . No, compared with the white votes secured by John Kerry (lost White votes by about 17 points in 2004) and Al Gore (lost white votes by 12 points in 2000). The last Democratic candidate for president to win a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
But Barack Obama can very much still win the popular vote against John McCain. Here is how –
(1) The white voters constitute about 80 percent of the electorate. Assume that Obama loses this segment by 10 points (if the current preference measurements hold), Barack Obama would be at a 8 percent disadvantage in comparison with John McCain
(2) The African-American voters constitute about 12 percent of the vote. Obama is leading this segment 90-10. So the net gain is about 9.6 percent for Obama.
(3) The Hispanic and other segment voters constitute about 8 percent of the vote. Obama is leading this segment 60-40. So the net gain is about 1.6 percent for Obama.
So the arithmetic tells us that Obama is likely to receive about 11 percent net gain from the non-white electorate segment. If Obama holds the loss in the white electorate segment to the current 10 points (translating into net loss of 8 points, so Obama would be ahead 11-8 = 3 points) or no more than 12 points then he is likely to win the popular vote. Of course, winning the popular vote narrowly (less than 1-2 points) does not necessarily turn into electoral vote victory. That depends on the distribution of the popular vote.
Tags: African-American, Barack Obama, Hispanics, John McCain, U.S. Presidential Elections, White voters
