When are Barack Obama and John McCain likely to announce their vice-presidential choices?
Barack Obama is expected to return from his current Afghanistan, Iraq, and European foreign policy tour on or about July 28th. The Beijing Olympic games begin on August 8th and end on August 24th. The Democratic party convention begins on August 25th and ends on August 28th. (The Republican party convention begins on September 1st).
So Obama has to announce his vice-presidential choice at the convention (he would not obviously announce during the olympic games) or between about July 8th and about August 3rd or 4th so that the Obama campaign can enjoy 3-4 days of comprehensive news coverage — the vice-presidential choice is likely to generate substantial free publicity. The announcement at the convention is a bit too risky. Further, Obama’s birthday is on August 4th, he would be 46 years of age, and that would be a wonderful occasion to showcase the youth of Obama (and conversely, the age of McCain — 72 years.) So an announcement is likely to be made between about July 28th and August 3rd or 4th.
The best bets on Obama’s vice-presidential choices are Senators Evan Bayh, Joseph Biden or Jack Reed or Governors Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius.
What about John McCain? He will certainly wait to know Obama’s choice before he makes the final decision. That means that McCain has two options given the fact that McCain also will not make the announcement during the olympic games — August 8th to August 24th and it is a protocol to lie low during the other party’s convention (in this case, the Democratic party convention which is between August 25th and August 28th).
Therefore, one alternative for McCain is that he can make the announcement immediately after the Democratic party convention i.e. on August 29th or 30th or 31st and before the Republican party convention begins on September 1st. That would limit the post-convention electoral bounce for Obama after this monstrously publicized acceptance speech on August 28th. But the problem of announcement on August 29th or 30th is that the announcement is that the announcement may also be contaminated with substantial discussion of McCain’s age (72 years old) and comparison with Obama’s youth and age (47 years). Actually, the interaction between the positive glow from the Democratic party nomination acceptance speech for Obama and the unfavorable coverage of McCain’s age could turn out to be an even biggest boost for Obama.
The other alternative is that McCain can follow Obama immediately on or about August 3rd or 4th: let us say, Obama announces his vice-presidential choice on August 3rd, McCain can make his announcement immediately on August 4th or 5th and that would neutralize any electoral bounce that Obama may get from his vice-presidential choice. But then Obama’s birthday on August 4th poses the same problem of discussion and comparison of the ages of the candidates.
So, while it is fairly obvious that the optimal time frame for the announcement of his vice-presidential choice is July 28th – August 3rd or 4th for Obama but it is not clear what is the optimal time frame for McCain (immediately after Obama in early August or immediately after the Democratic party convention in late August).
McCain is most like to go with Mitt Romney as his choice though Governor Sarah Palin is most viable — the biggest challenge with Governor Palin is that she (44 years of age) may McCain (72 years of age) bit too old but with Romney (61 years old ) the contrast is less stark.
Tags: Barack Obama, Evan Bayh, Jack Reed, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tim Kaine
July 20, 2008 at 9:31 pm |
Assuming McCain is smart enough to be President, why do you conclude McCain would not go with the “most viable” candidate, Sarah Palin, as opposed to McCain “most likely” going with Romney? Or are you concluding McCain thinks Romney is more viable than Palin?
July 20, 2008 at 9:44 pm |
Ted –
My reasons is simple. Sarah Palin is very good but she is 44 years of age, and McCain is (or will be in August) 72 years. Don’t you think that difference in the age is likely to be stark? Of course, Palin is not likely to be of much electoral hep to McCain beyond Alaska (which McCain has to win, right?.) Of course, Palin will help give confidence and enthusiasm to conservatives but again if McCain is not going to win the conservatives then he is deep trouble. I like Palin — she is smart, young, energetic, principled, and I think will be a marvelous president but life is just too complex.
On the other hand, the age difference between Romney (61 years old) and McCain is not so stark. Plus Romney (with his populist rhetoric) may help McCain in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Romney, too, is respected by the conservatives (remember that he announced his withdrawal from the nomination contest in a conservative conference in D.C.)
Electorally, Romney is plausible though Palin is not only viable in objective measures but she is also more exciting.
You might be right — and McCain may go with Palin, and that would be commendable choice.
July 21, 2008 at 4:31 am |
McCain IS in deep trouble with the GOP conservative base (he got the nominstion by independents and moderates and Dem-switch-overs voting McCain), which is why Palin, in addition to garnering the Hillary voters as well as being in the epicenter of the national oil/energy issue, is more than perfect. Palin is MUCH more truly/consistently conservative that McCain AND Romney, while she shares much of McCain’s maverick positions for ethics and against over-spending.
July 21, 2008 at 4:33 am |
And many many in the conservative base say they absoutely must have a Palin or they won’t vote for McCain in November. This is much more than just antidotal BTW.