Pakistan is in a pinch. As in India (and even the United States), food and gas prices are rising alarmingly. Inflation is worrisome. The purchasing power, and so is the quality, is eroding every day. Quite a bit of this situation can be immediately traced to external shocks, particularly the high oil price. But some of the economic challenges rise from several internal and structural issues.
Apart from the fragile economic situation, the political situation continues to be uncertain. After the parliamentary elections and formation of a promising coalition government between Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led by Asif Ali Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by Nawaz Sharif, there was hope. But this hope is now sullied.
Nawaz Sharif insisted — it appears rightly so — that the judges who were summarily dismissed by President Pervez Musharaff to suit his political expediency should be reinstated. Per Sharif, that was the right thing to do, and that would inspire confidence. But Zardari has dithered and delayed on this matter — presumably because Zardari himself has found some of the judges inconvenient given the large number of civil and criminal allegations against him. In any case, Sharif found the delay unacceptable and has pulled his party members from the cabinet without yet completely withdrawing support to the government.
The judicial issue continues to vex Sharif and Zardari. Of course, it is a matter of friction between the government and President Musharaff.
Add to the fragile economic, uncertain political and vexatious judicial situation, the troubling Taliban and border situation. Taliban and other extremist outfits are active — they feed on the resentment against the degrading quality of life. The Northwest frontier of Pakistan and the border area with Afghanistan has become almost autonomous with little meaningful orderly oversight and authority. Naturally, this area is eco-friendly anti-government groups. Pakistan government’s inability to oversee the law and order in this area is spawning protests from Afghanistan and the United States.
For now, the relations with India appear to be adequately professional though the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul and the recent bomb attacks in Bangalore have raised a new level of suspicions and somewhat strained that relationship.
Oveall, the support for PPP has eroded sharply from 50 percent to 32 percent. Opposition parties are now targeting the what they call the government’s dismal performance on the economy. Leaders from Mr. Musharraf’s loyalist PML-Q party are blaming the government for making a mess of an economy they built. Others who boycotted the election this year, including the major Islamist parties, are announcing plans to protest price hikes and inflation.
Is there a fix to the economy? Yes but there is no fix that will bring short-term relief to the citizens. There are only long-term fixes (e.g., reducing the governments subsidies to agriculture, and the non-productive governmental expenditures) but such long-term-beneficial actions would probably make the immediate situation even more difficult for the citizens. The Pakistan’s elected government is not robust enough to withstand such political pressures. To a certain degree, President Musharaff must be smiling at the predicament of the elected government and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
Tags: Afghanistan, Asif Ali Zardari, Banglalore, India, Inflation, Kabul, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan, Pakistan Muslim League, Pakistan Peoples Party, President Pervez Musharaff, United States, Yousuf Raza Gilani
