There are three scenarios for the outcome of the November presidential elections. Of course, some one — John McCain or Barack Obama — will win it but it could be close (e.g., 2000 and 2004) or it could be a comfortable victory for Obama (e.g., 1992 and 199) or it could a comfortable victory for McCain (e.g., 1980, 1984 and 1988). Given many structural challenges, it is most unlikely that it would be a comfortable victory for McCain. McCain may win it in a tight contest. It is more likely that Obama could win comfortably.
In any case, let us assume that it will be a close contest — at least, that’s what the current preference measures tell us.
If the election were to be a tight contest, then what are John McCain’s and Barack Obama’s plausible paths to victory? For John McCain, it is pretty simple — hold on to all the states that President Bush in 2004. That would give 286 electoral votes, and victory. But by all measures, Iowa (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) look very likely to turn over to Obama. That’s alright because that would still give McCain 274 electoral votes and that’s a victory (it takes 271 electoral votes to win.) But McCain’s challenge is that in too many states such as Indiana (11 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), Virigina (13 electoral votes) and Florida (27 electoral votes.) If the structural issues such as the national mood of the country were not so stacked against McCain, then we could have dismissed the close measures as too early before McCain’s support has cohered well.
What about Barack Obama? It looks probable that he will hold on to the 252 electoral votes that Kerry won. Michigan (17 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) appear a bit tight but given the county’s current sullen mood against President Bush and the Republican party, those are probably safe. But then what about additional 19 electoral votes? Iowa (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) appear very certain to be in Obama’s grasp. So that would give Obama with 264 electoral votes. Okay, what about additional 7 electoral votes. That’s not so obvious. Ohio and Florida (or even much touted Georgia or North Carolina) are not likely to be eventually in Obama’s column (assuming a close election). The most plausible victory candidates for Obama appear to be Colorado (9 electoral votes) and/or Virgina (13 electoral votes.) If Obama wins either Colorado or Virginia, he would have more than the necessary 271 electoral votes.
So that’s where we stand. Given all this, it is difficult to recommend an obvious vice-presidential choice for McCain but for Obama, it should be Governor Tim Kaine (so it appears.)
Of course, the big assumption is that the November elections are likely to be close. That may not be the case.
Tags: Barack Obama, Electoral votes, John McCain, President George W. Bush, Republican party, Tim Kaine, U.S. President, U.S. Presidential Elections
