The US Presidential Elections are in November 2012. The nominee for the Democratic Party is incumbent President Barack Obama.
The electoral contest to choose the Republican Party’s nominee begins next month (i.e. in January) in Iowa, and then the contest moves to New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Here is the surprise element. With a month to go, the former speaker of the US House Representatives Newt Gingirch leads in all the polls — while most political analysts believed that Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, would be leader. There is still some time, but increasingly Newt Gingrich’s front-runner status appears secure.
In any case, it is almost certain that President Barack Obama will face either Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney in the general elections in November 2012.
At this point, President Barack Obama’s odds appear to be less than an even coin flip. Only about 43% of the Americans approve Obama’s job performance. Generally, as commonsense would advise, a candidate’s ceiling on the percentage of vote is at a point or more than the job approval rating. So, given the current number we can expect Obama to get about 44% of the vote, and that would, of course, be a losing proposition.
However, accurate predictor is the average of all the job approal ratings beginning about one year prior to the elections until the election day — so we are just beginning that phase.
Having said this, who would be a tougher opponent — Romney or Gingrich — in the general elections? That’s tough to respond. Romney is, by both demeanor and past policy actions, more of a moderate, and therefore may have greater appeal to the independents who constitute about 20 percent of the American voters. However, this is merely an assumption and there is not much data to support this. Romney has some challenges — he does not enthuse the electorate, he is not received well by a significant fraction of the republican party, and he has generated wide-spread perception that he changes his policy position too-often (a flip-flopper).
Newt Gingrich enthuses the conservatives, he is bold in his ideas, he is articulate, and he appears to be in command of the situation. But he is biggest challenge is the perception (and to some degree based on facts) that he is wild, bombastic, and reckless. The perception lingers from his speakership days in the 1990s. As recently as yesterday, Gingrich engaged in dangerous rhetorical flourish.
Newt Gingrich promised he would ask former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton “to be his secretary of state if he’s elected president next year,” the Washington Times reports. Unfortunately, naming individuals you would appoint to office before the election is apparently illegal (Title 18, Part I, Chapter 29, Section 599 of the U.S. Code). At the least, Gingrich has given a big stick to beat him with — all of Bolton’s flaws now become Gingrich’s flaws and testimony on Gingrich’s judgment.
Only this can be said for now: the American presidential politics is in ferment, and there are too many imponderables.
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingirich
